Somaliland goes to the polls amid Ethiopia-Somalia port deal row
Small Somaliland is positioned in the middle of a regional spat that some experts fear could escalate further.
Amid escalating regional tensions, voters in the self-declared state of Somaliland will vote on Wednesday in its fourth general election since its 1991 break from Somalia. While Somaliland now has its own government, parliament, currency, passports and other features of an independent country, however, its sovereignty remains unrecognised internationally as Somalia continues to view it as part of its territory.
In the capital city of Hargeisa, supporters of the ruling Kulmiye (Peace, Unity and Development) Party crowded the streets in green-and-yellow-coloured shirts, chanting victory songs, with women ululating as the campaigning ended last week.
Incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi is seeking a renewed five-year mandate in the election, delayed by two years because of time and financial constraints, according to authorities. His main challenger is former parliament speaker and opposition candidate Abdirahman “Irro” Mohamed Abdullahi of the Somaliland National Party, also known as the Wadani party, which has promised more roles for women and young people in his governmtorial tensions with rebels in the disputed Las Anod, claimed by Puntland, another autonomous region that broke away from Somalia in 1998, have emerged as the key issues in the run-up to the election.
Crucially, the vote is also being shaped by the candidates’ international weight and what that could do for Somaliland, which is desperate to be recognised as a separate country.
President Abdi has touted his administration’s landmark “port-for-recognition” memorandum of understanding (MOU) for a deal with neighbouring Ethiopia, signed in January by him and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The proposed deal would allow the larger, landlocked Ethiopia to use Somaliland’s Red Sea port of Berbera. In return, Ethiopia has said it will undertake an “in-depth assessment” of Somaliland’s quest for official recognition. In literal terms, Ethiopia has not specifically said it will recognise Somaliland. However, authorities in Hargeisa see eventual recognition as the outcThe historic maritime MOU has caused anger in Somalia, and relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have since virtually collapsed. In October, Ethiopian diplomat Ali Mohamed Adan was expelled from Somalia in what is just the latest in a long list of back-and-forth diplomatic spats.
Irro has capitalised on this fallout, blaming Abdi for being a divisive actor.
Egypt – Ethiopia’s longtime rival – and Turkey, a close ally of Somalia, have waded into the fray. Turkey has taken on the role of peacemaker by facilitating talks, while Egypt is backing Somalia by providing military The situation has got more tense with other actors getting involved,” Hargeisa-based political analyst Moustafa Ahmad told Al Jazeera. “I am not sure how the deal will go through. I’d say it is very unpredictable.” There is currently no set date for the deal to be made official.
The situation has got more tense with other actors getting involved,” Hargeisa-based political analyst Moustafa Ahmad told Al Jazeera. “I am not sure how the deal will go through. I’d say it is very unpredictable.” There is currently no set date for the deal to be made official.
The port deal: International recognition for Somaliland?
Ethiopia, Africa’s largest landlocked nation by population (more than 120 million) has relied exclusively on tiny neighbour Djibouti’s ports to access the Gulf of Aden for some time. After a three-decade-long war, Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, causing the country to lose access to coastlines, something authorities there have always seen as hobbling its regional “big power” status.
Addis Ababa has since then sought more direct access to the important maritime routes around it, looking to diversify from Djibouti’s offerings. Last October, Prime Minister Abiy told parliament Ethiopia was surrounded by water but remained “thirsty”. Accessing the Red Sea and the Nile would secure the country’s future, he said.
Under the Somaliland deal, Ethiopia will take a 50-year lease of the Berbera Port, affording Addis Ababa 20km (12.5 miles) of the Red Sea coastline for commercial marine operations and a naval base. The port was redeveloped in 2018 by Dubai firm and port manager DP World, which holds a 51 percent stake in its operations. Hargeisa owns a 30 percent stake in the public-private partnership, while Addis Ababa has now acquired a 19 percent stake.
In addition, Hargeisa will also receive a stake in the state-owned Ethiopian Airlines, according to the January deal, although details about this part of the agreement are still scant.
Official recognition from Ethiopia could pave the way for global recognition, some analysts say, and lead other countries to trade with Somaliland or open embassies there.
ForHargeisa, the deal appears as good as done. “We are ready and just waiting for Ethiopia to sign the deal,” President Abdi told reporters on the campaign trail earlier this month. Authorities are trying to market the port as an alternative avenue to the Suez Canal where ships face attacks from Houthi rebels. Locally, it’ll be an economic “game changer” Abdi has said, and is set to unlock about $3.4bn in revenues.
A power change is unlikely to roll back local enthusiasm for the deal, analysts say, although the Wadani party has criticised Abdi for handling the deal with Ethiopia in a divisive manner. “From the Somaliland side, the deal is still on and will be on even if there’s a change of government and Wadani wins the elections,” Ahmad said.
When will that happen is another question entirely, though. Amid the regional fallout, Ethiopia has not yet put a date on when the lease will take effect or when it would officially recognise Somaliland – in what some say might be an attempt to slow down the process and not immediately escalate tensions.
